Factors Influencing the Consumption of Circular Products in Developing Countries: A Nonlinear Modeling

The growing demand for circular products is pivotal for achieving global sustainability, yet understanding the factors driving this behavior in developing countries remains limited. This paper investigates the determinants of circular product purchases, focusing on mediating and moderating effects. Grounded in the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and the Stimulus-Organism-Response (SOR) model, we use an Ordered Logit model to analyze data from Guayaquil, Ecuador. We find that ecological commitment and seeking information on environmental impact mediate the relationship between environmental importance and purchase frequency, while monthly income, education level, and gender moderate key relationships. Higher income enables cost absorption, education enhances receptiveness to environmental information, and women exhibit greater responsiveness to sustainable consumption. This study contributes to circular economy literature by highlighting previously underexplored mediating and moderating dynamics in a developing economy context. While centered on Guayaquil, the findings highlight structural and behavioral mechanisms—such as ecological commitment and access to information—that can be further tested across diverse urban and rural settings in Latin America to assess their robustness and contextual variability. Future studies incorporating qualitative approaches could deepen understanding of the motivations and barriers shaping sustainable consumption, providing further insights into long-term trends and generational dynamics.