Asymmetric effects of industrial robots on energy intensity: The moderating role of macroeconomic factors

This research examines how the adoption of industrial robots (IR) has influenced the energy intensity of Chinese manufacturing firms between 2011 and 2019. Using a combination of fixed-effects (FE-OLS), instrumental-variable (IV/2SLS), and Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) estimations, the analysis investigates both average and distributional effects. In addition, an Enterprise Innovation and Efficiency Index (EIEI) is introduced as an exploratory indicator that summarizes firms’ investment capacity, financial structure, and managerial incentives. The findings reveal that industrial robots are generally associated with lower energy intensity, with stronger reductions observed among firms at the upper end of the distribution. The business cycle itself shows no direct influence, although its interaction with IR becomes relevant during periods of economic expansion. In highly concentrated industries, energy intensity tends to fall, but this effect weakens when automation deepens. Environmental regulation on its own is not significant; however, when combined with IR, it can temporarily raise energy use as firms adjust to new technologies. The EIEI results indicate that companies with stronger internal capabilities—greater investment resources, sound financial positions, and effective management—are better placed to achieve lasting energy efficiency. These findings emphasize the importance of promoting robotic automation in energy-intensive firms while aligning complementary strategies for sustainability.