Association between informal employment and mortality rate by welfare regime in Latin America and the Caribbean: An ecological study

Objective We aimed to estimate the association between informal employment and mortality in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) by comparing welfare state regimes. Design Ecological study using time-series cross-sectional analysis of countries. Informality was estimated from household surveys by the Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies in collaboration with the World Bank, and the adult mortality rates for 2000-2016 were obtained from the WHO databases. Countries were grouped by welfare state regimes: state productivist, state protectionist and familialist. We calculated the compound annual growth rate for each country and performed linear regression between the informality and the adult mortality rates stratified by sex and welfare state regime. Setting Seventeen countries from LAC with available data on informality and adult mortality rates for 2000-2016. Primary outcome measure The association between informality and mortality by welfare state regime. Results Between 2000 and 2016, mortality rates decreased an average 1.3% per year and informal employment rates 0.5% per year. We found a significant positive association between informality and mortality rates (women: R 2 =0.48; men: R 2 =0.36). The association was stronger among the state regime countries (women: R 2 =0.58; men: R 2 =0.77), with no significant association among the familialist countries. Conclusion Informal employment negatively impacts population health, which is modified by welfare state regimes. Addressing informal employment could be an effective way to improve population health in LAC. However, linkage with public health and labour market agendas will be necessary.